MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK!!!

11/16/08

Cleveland +5.5   2 units       WON

Cleveland/Bills over 40  2 units   WON

More NBA picks for 11/17/08

Suns + 2.5    3 units         loss

Clippers -2.5   1 unit      loss

CBB

Florida Atlantic +19  (3)

Loyola Chicago +7  (3)

North Texas +12.5  (3)

Oklahoma/MVST Under 122  (2)

11/17 NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5 3x

1st NCAA BASKETBALL POST

I am a little disappointed in myself, had this play pegged and decided to wait on it, and the line moved 2 points against us, but I still think there is some value on the spread, and a lot more value in the total:

Monday Night Basketball:

Central Michigan -1       1 unit            loss

C Mich/Missouri State under 136     3 units     WON

First NBA post!

So now that we are getting the hang of posting, you can expect to see more plays begin to filter for your bankroll pleasure.  Tonight, in NBA action:

Oklahoma City under 184    1 unit     Loss

will probably have a couple of second half plays

Hook

First Posted NCAA FOOTBALL PICK

NOTE: I rate my plays on a 1-5 unit scale. A 1 unit play is something I like and am confident in, while a 5 unit play almost never happens and means I feel there is a over 90% chance of success. Each unit should represent about 1-2% of your bankroll. Remember, just because there are more units on a particular play, NEVER GO ALL-IN, and there is no such thing as a lock.

Based on my systems and early line movement, my pick for the Tuesday night game is:

NCAA FOOTBALL:

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3.5     2 units     WON

1st post

Welcome to Beat The Hook, the brainchild of two sports fanatics who decided after years of making money gambling, why not share it with others? I’m “Hook” and my partner is “Joe”, and while it’s obvious that these are not our real names, they do help personify our wagering styles. I am a lines expert; I try to find value within the numbers and exploit them, and while I hit at around a 56% mark, I truly excel at 2nd half spreads, where the general public is already influenced by half the game’s events and capping either with or against them is much easier. I take into account my own personal “power rankings”, which I have for every team/individual in sports, and compare my number to Vegas. After that, I going through a systematic method of looking at statistics, angles, trends and finally public perception. It is only then that I see if anything can be turned into a play. “Joe”, on the other hand, is a true contrarian bettor, someone who has inside information as to what the public is on (and no, you cannot find this information online, Joe has contacts within the books), and goes against the tide. More often than not (and at times at a ridiculous rate), Joe has been steadily increasing his bankroll in every major sport. And that is the purpose of this site: to steadily increase your bankroll. Both Joe and I have seen/heard it all when it comes to beating the books: touts who claim to go 95%, computer systems that turn people’s pocket change into tens of thousands of dollars… let me be the first to “burst your bubble”: that is not going to happen with us. What you WILL get here at “Beat The Hook” are two capper’s well-informed opinions, regarding plays on all major sports, with the intent to increase your bankroll over time. We will be on hand to answer all sorts of questions, whether they be from a beginning bettor or a grizzled vetern. You will see us pick some of the same plays, and at times we may go against one another, that is the nature of sports wagering. Above all, however, you WILL see an increase in your bankroll over time with constant Money Management.

Although we haven’t been at it for as many years as many of the other so-called “experts”, both of us have had significant returns on investment (aka a high ROI %). There are several things in particular that we hope will set our site apart from all the rest:

First, we are going to be honest to a fault. EVERY SINGLE PLAY will be documented, win or loss, and our records will always be available if asked.

Secondly, we are going to list our lines, and they will always be numbers that can be found at major wagering sites. At times, we are going to hit lines before they move, and therefore if you do not catch it fast enough you may not be able to get the same number. That said, we will be open to answering questions regarding our plays, including why we played the side we did, as well as how strong we would play it if the line shifted.

Third of all, we are going to give all people who decide they are interested in our site a free trial period, where they can look at our site for free, and receive all of our plays in real-time. Furthermore, if readers want, we can add them to our email list, and then send you the plays as we pick them (since I particularly like playing 2nd halfs).

Lastly, we are going to be constantly making this site better and better over the weeks and months to come. Joe and I are already in talks with several other fantastic cappers, each of whom bring world-class integrity and knowledge to the table. They will also begin posting their plays, and it will be left up to you who to tail when we’re hot, or who to fade when we’re not (and no we won’t take offense to it! Streaks are part of the way gambling is)

This is merely the beginning, and continue to look for more insightful postings, regarding all aspects of handicapping games, like where to play, the industry that is sports wagering, and everything in-between.

We wish you the best in your capping endeavors, and hope that you stick with us as we try to

BEAT THE HOOK!

Sincerely,

Hook and Joe

Bank Roll Management

This is a must read article regarding how to manage your bank roll.

Football Forecasters we adhere to a “Grinders” style of wagering. One of the best pieces I can remember reading on football betting & money management with regards to wagering, was a piece I read while living in Nevada. It pertained to playing professional level Blackjack (did you know blackjack is the only game in Vegas that a knowledgeable player can win at consistently? It’s a matter of statistics, probabilities and card counting). The concept fits very well for bankrolling your football betting action. It involves using a small “scaling” concept used in blackjack card counting, and I combine it with a stock market investment strategy I learned from Bob Brinker of MoneyTalk. These are excellent money management strategies for football betting – I call it “Grinding”. The concept is simple: 1) Define your bankroll before the season starts. 2) bet a set percentage of your bankroll on each base play you make. 3) Bump your play up only slightly, 20%, when you feel you have a game you are particularly confident about (A Plays). A Grinder has no expectations of hitting remotely close to 100% of his picks every week. Neither will he make a recklessly large play (over 10% of bankroll) on any given game to “catch up” or “play a sure-thing”. A grinder is looking to hit a simple majority over the long haul–along the lines of 54 – 66% winners (though we do strive for perfection). He will place only between 3-5 percent of his bankroll on any given wager.

A Grinder plays a specific percentage of his overall bankroll consistently on each play week in and week out. For example: Whether your bankroll is $1,000 or $10,000 dollars you would place 4% of your overall football betting bankroll ($40 for a 1K bankroll, $400 for a 10K bankroll) on each and every play you make. Your “bankroll” is defined as the total amount you have socked away in a shoebox, that you can afford to lose and not change or adjust your living style. Most people don’t have this amount “set aside”; Another definition of bankroll is the amount of money you could get your hands on in a pinch without borrowing from your mother. If a Grinder with a $10,000 dollar bankroll made 200 plays during the season, and hit 58% winners, he would finish the season by nearly doubling his stake, being ahead +9,440 units. A 94% return in about 5 months, that’s damn good. The reality is that we strive for perfection, but settle for a realistic winning percentage, somewhere between 54 – 60%.

Sound financial discipline will keep you in the game if and when you hit those inevitable rough times. No matter how much a play appeals to us we rarely double up on a play, in fact we rarely place more than 5% of a bankroll on a single play. There is no such thing as a “lock” (many a square has gotten in trouble because of playing a lock). It is also folly to make a bet solely to have “action” on a game. If you feel compelled to do this (an example is if you’re going to watch the game on TV) limit your action to 1% of your bankroll. Know the difference between “entertainment action”, and a calculated and researched investment wager.

Your base wager should be an amount you are “comfortable losing”. Play within your comfort zone. If you’ve been a dollar player for years and are thinking about stepping up, a large step up in action could impact your judgment. The glitz, the action, the prospect of losing, the allure of hitting a big return, could make for unstable decision making. Remember that even the sharpies lose 40-46% of the time! I’ve found that having a predefined bankroll is the best way to maintain emotional and mental clarity over the course of the roller coaster ride of the betting season. Money management prowess is fundamental to being a winning player – just as the ability to stop the run is fundamental to a winning football program.

I am often asked about parlay tickets. The math says most of them are a losing proposition. The professionals limit their income action to straight up wagers.

There are variations of being a Grinder, I’ve outlaid what’s worked for me, derived through reading handicapping books, online gambling articles, and money management techniques used in playing blackjack and stock market investing. I used to be a losing bettor. I would scratch my head trying to figure out how I picked 60% of the games correctly and wind up losers. I used to fanatically chase bad plays with desperate plays. I am convinced that most people can pick winners. However the vast majority of winning pickers wind up losing over the course of the season. The key to long term success is sound football betting advice & money management strategy. Have the discipline to consistently place the same percentage on your play’s each and every week. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered, be a big fat pig.

Good Luck,

Kurt Schumacher

Editor – Football Forecasters